During the UEFA Euro 2016 the Norwegian Computing Center (NR) in cooperation with 100 % Sport will daily consider the chances of every team participating in the championship, based on a probability model. All calculations will be updated daily.

The probabilities are found by simulating ("playing" on a computer) all remaining matches numerous times. The remaining part of the tournament is "played" 100 000 times. From these simulations, we calculate all the teams' chances to win the championship, to win their group, to reach the second round, etc. When the remaining matches are "played" we consider details like:

a) In the group play the order in the table is firstly given the number of points. If two or more teams are equal on points, their rankings are determined by the number of points, goal difference and number of goals scored in the matches between the teams concerned. If some teams still have equal ranks, their rankings are determined by goal difference and number of goals scored in all the group matches, thereafter by fair play conduct and finally by position in the UEFA national team coefficient rankings. If the order is decided by fair play conduct, random drawing is used in the simulations.

b) Matches in the second round cannot end as a draw. If the result stands as a draw after reaching ordinary time, extra time of two periods of 15 minutes shall be played. If the match still is a draw, penalties will be taken to determine the winner.

The result of a match will depend on the strength of the two contesting countries, but there will also be an element of chance. Before the tournament starts, expert opinions from ten Norwegian football enthusiasts give the basis for the strength of each team. As the matches actually are played, the strength is updated for every team. Consequently, the strength will more and more be given by the matches actually played, and gradually less by the opinions given in advance.

The web-pages include:

• The main page containing all the teams' overall chances in the tournament.
  
• One page for the second round.
  
• One page for each group.
  
• One page describing the method used (including the calculation of the strength of each team).

The Norwegian Computing Center has a strong position as a research institute within statistical-mathematical modelling and computer science. The 75 employees of the institute work within applied research, on a contract basis, for industry and authorities nationally and internationally. In the Department of Statistical Analysis, Image Analysis and Pattern Recognition (SAMBA), we are 30 researchers. Together with the Department of Statistical Analysis of Natural Resource Data (SAND) we constitute one of Europe's largest and most competent groups of researchers in the field of applied statistics and image analysis.

Who wins?

Winner chances, all teams

Probability for 1.-2. position and for reaching the finals in the second round

Winner chances by date: [UEFA 2016]

Previous championships: [FIFA 2014] [UEFA 2012] [FIFA 2010] [UEFA 2008] [FIFA 2006] [UEFA 2004] [UEFA 2000]